An explosion at 11 a.m. May 15 in northern Bogota, Colombia, at the intersection of 74th Street and Caracas Avenue killed at least two people, including a Colombian police superintendent, and injured at least 35, including former Interior Minister Fernando Londono. This is the first explosive attack in Bogota since October 2011, when an explosive device in a garbage can killed two police officers. Details are still emerging, but police are reporting that a person on a motorcycle threw an explosive device at Londono's car, which may indicate a targeted assassination attempt.
Bombings in Bogota are not rare, and it is common for the city to have a few attacks a year. However, assassination attempts against individuals are less common. The latest was in 2007 when a letter bomb was sent to the deputy education minister. The Colombian Public Ministry has told Radio Caracol that it is hypothesizing that the attack was carried out by either the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to protest the U.S.-Colombian free trade agreement or by neo-paramilitary groups in retaliation against the extraditions of former paramilitary leaders to the United States.
Initial speculation noted the timing of the bombing (the U.S.-Colombian free trade agreement went into effect May 15). However, the likelihood of this being an assassination attempt on Londono, the minister responsible for former President Alvaro Uribe Velez's security plan, increases the possibility that the motivation behind the attack is related to Colombia's ongoing Espada de Honor operations against the FARC and neo-paramilitary groups known as bandas criminales, or bacrim. It is unknown if the incident at Universidad Nacional was related to the attack on Londono, but there is a relationship between leftist student groups at the university and the FARC. One person was arrested in the foiled car bomb, and initial reports blamed the FARC.
The three incidents show that the perpetrators of the attacks are able to coordinate attacks in Bogota, the core of Colombia's security imperatives, and to strike at targets protected by a security detail, as Londono was. That level of capability in Bogota will be a concern for Colombian security forces since the cities have remained relatively free from attacks even though the conflict has heated up, especially in the past year.
If ex-paramilitary members carried out this attack, it would be the first time any of these groups had carried out attacks against state interests in Bogota and would be a major escalation by the criminal organizations. The choice of Londono as a target would be curious, because he was known as a hard-liner against the Marxist guerrillas during his time in charge of domestic security. Also, the fact that there were multiple attempted attacks indicates this was meant to be a political statement in addition to an assassination attempt, which points to the FARC as the perpetrators.
Regardless of who perpetrated the attacks, the attacks represent an escalation in the conflict between government forces and what it deems to be criminal organizations, such as the FARC and bacrim. The attacks are a direct message to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos that increased operations by security forces in Colombia will be met with attacks in urban centers such as Bogota. This capability to attack urban targets will be taken seriously by the government, and it is possible operations against the FARC and bacrim will become more frequent and intense and will increase the chances of further retaliatory attacks against urban targets.
Resource: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/bogota-explosion-escalates-colombias-civil-conflict
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